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Weekly Market Update

Geraldine Sundstrom, portfolio manager, comments on what’s moving markets and how the PIMCO GIS Dynamic Multi-Asset Fund (DMAF) is positioned.

From the desk of Geraldine Sundstrom, Friday 12th July 2019.

This week was relatively quiet as summer starts to set in and the main events were around Central Bankers’ speeches.

The overall tone has not changed. Stimulus is on the horizon. That is a given but questions are starting to emerge on the nature and/or quantum of the easing: In Europe, for example, the release of the European Central Bank (ECB) minutes pushed the market-implied probability of a rate cut lower, but lifted market expectations of a new round of quantitative easing (QE). A new psychological floor for Eurozone interest rates led to a major bund sell-off, with German sovereign debt now yielding -20 basis points (bp), more than the -40 bp seen just a few days ago. In the US, attention is on the timing of the widely expected 2019 cuts (of about 50 or 75bps). Overall, yield curves mostly steepened: the US 10yr yield rose by 9 bp to 2.12%, while its German equivalent gained 15 bps to -0.21%.

To further fuel the repricing of fixed income, we had a few better data releases on the heels of a strong US payroll last week. Eurozone Industrial Production surprised markedly to the upside, printing +0.9% m/m in May and reducing the year-on-year (y/y)contraction to -0.5% y/y, less than the -1.5% expected. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) also surprised to the upside, with core CPI at 2.1% y/y, above consensus expectations of 2.0% - hardly a case of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) undershooting its 2% inflation target... Finally, and while Chinese data continues to print in the slow lane, Credit activity surprised on the upside; everything else being equal, this could be a leading indicator of better things to come.

The soup is still at a pretty good temperature and Goldilocks remains happy - but as data continues to print in the next few weeks and months, we could have meaningful repricing ahead. This week, for instance, data led fixed income markets to erase the overshoot of the past weeks. Looking forward, earnings releases will give a better picture of second-quarter earnings, helping us assess whether Earnings Per Share (EPS) growth is on recessionary territory, or managed to escape it.

In DMAF portfolios, we continued to emphasise our carry theme and added to our Emerging Market Foreign Exchange (EM FX) carry basket. The basket now represents about 9% of the portfolio and is diversified across 7 currencies. EM FX has not had a meaningful change in valuations, contrary to other asset classes, and is also liquid. The asset class offers a real and nominal carry that pretty much beats anything else available, and is also supported by dovish major Central Banks. Finally, and in light of the better data, we adjusted our duration again, lowering it to 2.8 years.

We will be taking a break over the next couple of weeks and will return after the earnings season is over and the Fed and the ECB have had their July meetings. Until then, we would like to thank our readers for their time and attention and wish you all an enjoyable summer.

The Author

Geraldine Sundstrom

Portfolio Manager, Asset Allocation

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London W1U 3AH, England
+44 (0) 20 3640 1000

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PIMCO Europe Ltd (Company No. 2604517) and PIMCO Europe Ltd - Italy (Company No. 07533910969) are authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (12 Endeavour Square, London E20 1JN) in the UK. The Italy branch is additionally regulated by the CONSOB in accordance with Article 27 of the Italian Consolidated Financial Act. PIMCO Europe Ltd services and products are available only to professional clients as defined in the Financial Conduct Authority’s Handbook and are not available to individual investors, who should not rely on this communication. | PIMCO Deutschland GmbH (Company No. 192083, Seidlstr. 24-24a, 80335 Munich, Germany) and PIMCO Deutschland GmbH Swedish Branch (SCRO Reg. No. 516410-9190) are  authorised and regulated by the German Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) (Marie- Curie-Str. 24-28, 60439 Frankfurt am Main) in Germany in accordance with Section 32 of the German Banking Act (KWG). The Swedish Branch is additionally supervised by the Swedish Financial Supervisory Authority (Finansinspektionen) in accordance with Chapter 25 Sections 12-14 of the Swedish Securities Markets Act. he services provided by PIMCO Deutschland GmbH are available only to professional clients as defined in Section 31a para. 2 German Securities Trading Act (WpHG). They are not available to individual investors, who should not rely on this communication. | PIMCO (Schweiz) GmbH (registered in Switzerland, Company No. CH-020.4.038.582-2), Brandschenkestrasse 41, 8002 Zurich, Switzerland, Tel: + 41 44 512 49 10. The services and products provided by PIMCO (Schweiz) GmbH are not available to individual investors, who should not rely on this communication but contact their financial adviser.

Data as of 12th July 2019 unless otherwise stated. 

Past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future results and no guarantee is being made that similar returns will be achieved in the future.

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PIMCO Funds: Global Investors Series plc is an umbrella type open-ended investment company with variable capital and is incorporated with limited liability under the laws of Ireland with registered number 276928. The information is not for use within any country or with respect to any person(s) where such use could constitute a violation of the applicable law. The information contained in this communication is intended to supplement information contained in the prospectus for this Fund and must be read in conjunction therewith. Investors should consider the investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses of these Funds carefully before investing. This and other information is contained in the Fund's prospectus. Please read the prospectus carefully before you invest or send money. Past performance is not a guarantee or a reliable indicator of future results and no guarantee is being made that similar returns will be achieved in the future. Returns are net of fees and other expenses and include reinvestment of dividends. The performance data represents past performance and investment return and principal value will fluctuate so that the PIMCO GIS Funds shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than the original cost. Potential differences in performance figures are due to rounding. The Fund may invest in non-U.S. or non-Eurozone securities which involves potentially higher risks including non-U.S. or non-Euro currency fluctuations and political or economic uncertainty. For informational purposes only. Please note that not all Funds are registered for sale in every jurisdiction. Please contact PIMCO for more information. For additional information and/or a copy of the Fund's prospectus, please contact the Administrator: State Street Fund Services (Ireland) Limited and State Street Custodial Services (Ireland) Limited (collectively “State Street”), Telephone +353 1 7768000, Fax +353 1 7768491. © 2019.

RISK: Investing in the bond market is subject to risks, including market, interest rate, issuer, credit, inflation risk, and liquidity risk. The value of most bonds and bond strategies are impacted by changes in interest rates. Bonds and bond strategies with longer durations tend to be more sensitive and volatile than those with shorter durations; bond prices generally fall as interest rates rise, and the current low interest rate environment increases this risk. Current reductions in bond counterparty capacity may contribute to decreased market liquidity and increased price volatility. Bond investments may be worth more or less than the original cost when redeemed. Commodities contain heightened risk, including market, political, regulatory and natural conditions, and may not be suitable for all investors. Currency rates may fluctuate significantly over short periods of time and may reduce the returns of a portfolio. Derivatives may involve certain costs and risks, such as liquidity, interest rate, market, credit, management and the risk that a position could not be closed when most advantageous. Investing in derivatives could lose more than the amount invested. Equities may decline in value due to both real and perceived general market, economic and industry conditions. Investing in foreign-denominated and/or -domiciled securities may involve heightened risk due to currency fluctuations, and economic and political risks, which may be enhanced in emerging markets. Sovereign securities are generally backed by the issuing government. Obligations of U.S. government agencies and authorities are supported by varying degrees, but are generally not backed by the full faith of the U.S. government. Portfolios that invest in such securities are not guaranteed and will fluctuate in value. High yield, lower-rated securities involve greater risk than higher-rated securities; portfolios that invest in them may be subject to greater levels of credit and liquidity risk than portfolios that do not. Mortgage- and asset-backed securities may be sensitive to changes in interest rates, subject to early repayment risk, and while generally supported by a government, government-agency or private guarantor, there is no assurance that the guarantor will meet its obligations. Income from municipal bonds may be subject to state and local taxes and at times the alternative minimum tax. Swaps are a type of derivative; swaps are increasingly subject to central clearing and exchange-trading. Swaps that are not centrally cleared and exchange-traded may be less liquid than exchange-traded instruments. Inflation-linked bonds (ILBs) issued by a government are fixed income securities whose principal value is periodically adjusted according to the rate of inflation; ILBs decline in value when real interest rates rise. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) are ILBs issued by the U.S. government. Certain U.S. government securities are backed by the full faith of the government. Obligations of U.S. government agencies and authorities are supported by varying degrees but are generally not backed by the full faith of the U.S. government. Portfolios that invest in such securities are not guaranteed and will fluctuate in value.

This material contains the opinions of the manager and such opinions are subject to change without notice. This material has been distributed for informational purposes only. Forecasts, estimates and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary research and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. It is not possible to invest directly in an unmanaged index. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission. PIMCO is a trademark of Allianz Asset Management of America L.P. in the United States and throughout the world. ©2019, PIMCO

PIMCO Europe Ltd (Company No. 2604517) and PIMCO Europe Ltd - Italy (Company No. 07533910969) are authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (12 Endeavour Square, London E20 1JN) in the UK. The Italy branch is additionally regulated by the Commissione Nazionale per le Società e la Borsa (CONSOB) in accordance with Article 27 of the Italian Consolidated Financial Act. PIMCO Europe Ltd services are available only to professional clients as defined in the Financial Conduct Authority’s Handbook and are not available to individual investors, who should not rely on this communication. This document has been distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed. No part of this document may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission. PIMCO is a trademark of Allianz Asset Management of America L.P. in the United States and throughout the world. © 2019, PIMCO