Secular Outlook 2019: Dealing With Disruption

A decade after the financial crisis, monetary policy is almost exhausted and fiscal policy seems unwilling or unable to pick up the baton.

Expect a different future, challenged by six disruptive trends.

Let’s see how each of the five disruptive forces could threaten the eurozone and whether investors can still find opportunity in the region. We finish with a look at our ‘Supersecular’ trend.

1China

China Map
Internal Slowdown graphic
Internal Slowdown
Tech Fuelled graphic
Chinese tech-fueled manufacturing as a world disruptor
Trade Tensions graphic
Growing global trade tensions

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2Populism

Protectionism Graphic Protectionism
Immigration tensions graphic Immigration tensions
Extreme economic policies graphic Extreme economic policies

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3Tech

Tech location map
Emerging markets may leap ahead Productivity growth Some winners, many losers

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4Ageing populations

Ageing populations grahic
Lacklustre growth graphic
Lacklustre growth
Japannification in Europe graphic
Japannification in Europe
Pressure  to keep rates low graphic
Pressure  to keep rates low

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5Market risks

Market risks graphic
Beware of pockets of excess Low rates Scarcity of yield

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6Climate change

Supersecular Risk

Climate change graphic
More persistent and frequent climate shocks Greater odds of catastrophic events Risks from regulation

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Next Steps...

Secular Outlook

Major secular drivers disrupt the global economy and financial markets over the next three to five years.
We share our views on risks and opportunities ahead.

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