Economic and Market Commentary

5 Trends That Could Disrupt Markets

What risks lie beyond the near-term horizon? PIMCO experts discuss the secular trends that have the potential to disrupt the global economy, financial markets and investors’ portfolios over the next several years. Visit pimco.com/secular-outlook to read more.

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Tina Adatia, Fixed Income Strategist: This year we've described the secular framework as dealing with disruptions. So Joachim, can you talk a little bit about those disruptions and what we're expecting?

Joachim Fels, Global Economic Advisor: So, what are these secular trends that we think will lead to disruption over the next five years or so? Well, here are five of them.

The first one is China, you know, with its economic and geopolitical ambitions. So we think that will be very disruptive. Populism, second theme, not a new theme.

But we are now seeing how populism increasingly rhymes with protectionism, right? So think about the trade war. And so the risk of deglobalization is really increasing further.

Third disruptor is demographics. Again you can ask, "Well, that's been around for a long time. We know about population aging and about rising longevity.”

But I think we're now at the stage where it can become disruptive, because the global saving glut keeps increasing. This is keeping interest rates low, lower for longer, and the longer that lasts, the more disruptive it can become.

Then technology, well, I think everybody knows technology is disruptive.

But I think we're seeing more and more of that in the corporate sector. So there are a lot of winners and losers that we have to take into account.

And then finally, financial market vulnerability. This is something that has been building in the course of this expansion. We are worried about certain aspects of market structure, and we think that this could come back to haunt us in that next downturn.

Tina: Thank you Joachim. You've got any other questions, please contact your PIMCO representative. Thank you and have a good day.

For more insights and information visit pimco.com

Disclosure


All investments contain risk and may lose value. Statements concerning financial market trends or portfolio strategies are based on current market conditions, which will fluctuate. 

This material contains the opinions of the manager and such opinions are subject to change without notice. This material has been distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed.

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Tina Adatia
Fixed Income Strategist
Berdibek Ahmedov
Product Strategist, Global and Real Return
Olivia A. Albrecht
Head of ESG Business Strategy
Mike Amey
Joshua Anderson
Head of Global ABS Portfolio Management
Robert Arnott
Founder and Chairman, Research Affiliates
Andrew Balls
CIO Global Fixed Income
Justin Blesy
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Philippe Bodereau
Portfolio Manager, Global Head of Financial Research
David L. Braun
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Jelle Brons
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Nathaniel Brown
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Erin Browne
Portfolio Manager, Asset Allocation
Libby Cantrill
Head of Public Policy
Laura Deneke
Sr. Vice President, Product Strategist
Pramol Dhawan
Head of Emerging Markets Portfolio Management
Joachim Fels
Global Economic Advisor
David Fisher
Head of Traditional Product Strategies
Gene Frieda
Global Strategist
Adam Gubner
Portfolio Manager, Distressed Debt
Gregory Hall
Head of U.S. Global Wealth Management
David Hammer
Head of Municipal Bond Portfolio Management
Mary Hoppe
Daniel H. Hyman
Head of Agency MBS Portfolio Management
Daniel J. Ivascyn
Group Chief Investment Officer
Andrew R. Jessop
Portfolio Manager, High Yield
Nicholas J. Johnson
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Mark R. Kiesel
CIO Global Credit
Ryan Korinke
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Christine Long
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Nicola Mai
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Jason Mandinach
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Scott A. Mather
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Sean McCarthy
Head of Municipal Credit Research
Mohit Mittal
Portfolio Manager, Liability Driven Investment and Credit
James Moore
Alfred T. Murata
Portfolio Manager, Mortgage Credit
John Murray
Portfolio Manager, Commercial Real Estate
John Nersesian
Head of Advisor Education
Sonali Pier
Portfolio Manager, Multi-Sector Credit
Lupin Rahman
Head of EM Sovereign Credit
Libby Rodney
Steve A. Rodosky
Portfolio Manager, Real Return and Long Duration
Emmanuel Roman
Chief Executive Officer
Manusha Samaraweera
Product Strategist
Steve Sapra
Client Solutions & Analytics
Jerome M. Schneider
Head of Short-Term Portfolio Management
Marc P. Seidner
CIO Non-traditional Strategies
Emmanuel S. Sharef
Portfolio Manager, Asset Allocation and Residential Real Estate
Greg E. Sharenow
Portfolio Manager, Real Assets
Anmol Sinha
Fixed Income Strategist
Candice Stack
Head of Client Management, Americas
Cathy Stahl
Global Head of Marketing